Top maestro is quarantined

The Maggio Musicale theatre in Florence has announced that Daniele Gatti will take over next week’s concerts from Myung Whun Chung, who hast entered a 14-day self-imposed quarantine with his wife after returning from Tokyo.

Gatti happens to be free because the Croatian health authorities cancelled a March 10 joint concert of joint LaFil and Zagreb Phil, intended to celebrate Croatia’s presidency of the EU.

UPDATE: Myung-Whun Chung, sent this message to Alexander Pereira, the Maggio Sovrintendente: ‘On the 25th of February, my wife and I came back from Japan, one of the countries most strongly affected by the Coronavirus and people returning from there, a 14 day isolation is strongly recommended. Firenze dates happen to be right in the middle of this period and thus I will be patient till the period is over. My best wishes for the Theatre.’

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    • The covid-19 mortality rate is currently 2.5% or so; some experts think it may decline to around 1%. However, models indicate that more than 25% of the global population may become infected. One percent of 2 billion people is still 20 million deaths globally, or about 170,000 in the United Kingdom. (The UK government has warned of as many as half a million deaths.) Preliminary data may be wrong, as may the models — but to call concern and prudent caution hypochondria is rash.

      • The death rate is likely less than 2.5 percent because not all people who have it are included in the figures. Around 1 percent sounds more plausible.

        In the United Kingdom around 750,000 people die each year. If 25 percent of people get it, and it kills 1 percent of those infected, then it will kill about 150,000 people. Which is a bit more than typically happens with regular flu (the regular flu kills maybe 15,000 per year in Britain).

        Bottom line, at worst it is about 10 times as bad as the regular flu.

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