Erin Keefe, concertmaster in Minnesota and newly married to its conductor Osmo Vanska, has told the New York Philharmonic to take her off its search list. Erin’s telling friends: ‘I’m lucky and fortunate to have such fantastic colleagues bin Minnesota’.

The betting’s open on the next chief of the NY Philharmonic, but even at 50-1 you’d get few takers on an American contender.

First, the last two music directors, Maazel and Gilbert, have been made in the USA. Time for change.

Second, no American is presently in contention for front-line vacancies, in Berlin or elsewhere.

So who?

First in mind is Sir Simon Rattle who springs free from Berlin just as Gilbert steps down in New York. Rattle has avoided New York until now as a proverbial Babylon. He may find it preferable to the LSO.

Riccardo Chailly will be a contender if he doesn’t  take Berlin. Christian Thielemann will come into the reckoning. The New York Times is tipping Esa-Pekka Salonen, who has said repeatedly he does not wnat the responsibility of heading another major orchestra. And Gustavo Dudamel, who has already turned down New York once, will be high on the players’ list.

But there’s a long way to go between now and 2019.

Alan Gilbert will step down in mid-2017, after eight years in the job. The official release says he has timed his departure to coincide with the renovation of Lincoln Center, allowing the next chief to start in 2019 with a clean sheet.

Gilbert has brightened up the NY Phil’s repertoire, maintained high playing standards and formed strong relationships across the music world, especially in China. Critics fault him for a lack of sparkling finish – for the gloss that only great charisma can bring. But he was by no means  lacklustre, and he will be remembered more fondly than one or two of his recent predecessors. Matthew Van Besien, the orch’s president, has told leading supporters that ‘Alan has changed the orchestra’s DNA’.

A bold claim, but who’s next?

Berlin will expect to claim the most desirable conducting scalp in May. Will that leave New York scrabbling for seconds?

So who’s next? Click here.