Fascinating analysis on Quartz:
One prominent music analyst is putting a date on it. Midia Research founder Mark Mulligan, who’s spent more than a decade scrutinizing the digital-music market, predicts the music download business will stutter at around $600 million in 2019—a depressing fall from $3.9 billion in 2012, when Apple’s iTunes Store (the world’s preeminent downloads platform) was at its revenue peak. In 2015, downloads declined by 16%, and they look to slide as much as 30% more this year.
By 2020, Apple’s budding streaming service, Apple Music, will likely be 10 times bigger than the company’s download business. “This is the point at which Apple would choose to turn off the iTunes Store,” Mulligan writes.